In November 1997 16% of all women surveyed in South Africa
tested positive, more than double that of 1994. Estimates indicate that 18-20% of all
South Africans aged 20-40 was infected by 1998 (The Star, 1998). By 1998, 3.2 million
South Africans were infected with HIV, with 1 500 new infections and 390 deaths per day,
and 550 000 new infections and 130 000 deaths in the year. It is estimated that population
growth could be negative after 2008, with an average life expectancy falling form 60 to 40
years. Infant deaths were expected to rise by 20% because of mother-to-child transmission,
while deaths among children aged between 1 and 4, could rise by 150% from 1995 to 2005. In
1998 there was already 100 000 AIDS orphans
in South Africa, which will rise to 1,6 million in 2008.
In 1998, 15-20% of Gauteng teenagers and young adults, and 7% of the Gauteng population
were infected with the virus. Projections indicate that we can expect 65 000 deaths from
AIDS alone in Gauteng in the year 2005, possibly climbing to over 100 000 in the year 2013
(Gauteng Provincial Government, 1998).
In the early 90s HIV predictions in the black population was monitored at clinics
and revealed statistics in percentages for South Africa (SA) and Greater Johannesburg
(GJ):
By end 1992, 302 cases of AIDS were reported in
Johannesburg, with 145 deaths (Department of National Health and Population, 1992). By the
end of 1989, 5 701 of the total black population of Greater Johannesburg, aged 15-49, were
infected (Padayachee & Schall, 1990). HIV estimates showed an infection level of
15.23% of the Johannesburg/Randburg area in 1996.
Projections for HIV/AIDS in Gauteng indicate that:
- Approximately 17% of the total population is expected to be infected by 2013, with much
higher prevalence among economically active adults;
- The AIDS epidemic lags behind the HIV epidemic, but between 65 000 81 000 people
are expected to die of AIDS in 2005 and between 119 000 126 000 people in 2013;
- The major impact of the epidemic will be on people aged 25-49;
- Certain regions will be affected more than others;
- The total population will continue to grow despite the AIDS deaths;
- By 2013, the proportion of adults in the population will have decreased noticeably
compared to a no-AIDS situation, and the dependency ratio will increase due to infections
(Steinberg et.al., 1999).
TEENAGERS, YOUNG ADULTS AND STREET CHILDREN
The term street children and youth embraces a diverse group of people, dislocated from
family, school and community who tend to congregate in inner-city areas. Their reasons for
being on the street vary, but all live without conventional support from adults. In South
Africa the mean age of the street group is 13 years and consists mostly of black and
coloured males (Richter & Swart-Kruger, 1995).
REFERENCES
Department of National Health and Population 1992: AIDS in South Africa.
Gauteng Provincial Government 1998: AIDS Strategy. AIDS Unit: Marshalltown.
Levy, T. 1991: 315 000 will be HIV-positive by end of year. Business Day, 22
January.
Padayachee, G.N. & R. Schall 1990: Short-term predictions of the prevalence of
human immunodeficiency virus infection among the black population in South Africa. South
African Medical Journal, 77: 4, 329-33.
Richter, L.M. & J. Swart-Kruger 1995: AIDS-risk among street children and youth:
implications for intervention. South African Journal of Psychology, 25:1,
31-5.
Steinberg, M.; A. Kinghorn; J. Stein & L. Thomas 1999: The Impact of HIV/AIDS in
Gauteng. University of the Witwatersrand (Centre for Health Policy ) & Gauteng
Government (Health Section).