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THE STATE OF HIV/AIDS

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THE NATURAL HISTORY OF HIV/AIDS

The epidemic is thought to have its roots in central Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa represents about 60% of the world’s total HIV infections and accounts for almost 90% of the 14 million infections in Africa. Infection rates for women attending antenatal clinics in South Africa are (Steinberg et.al., 1999):

Survey Group

1994 Est. % HIV positive

1995 Est. % HIV positive

1996 Est. % HIV positive

South Africa

7.57

10.44

14.17

Province

     

Western Cape

1.16

1.66

3.09

Eastern Cape

4.52

6.00

8.10

Northern Cape

1.81

5.34

6.47

Free State

9.19

11.03

17.49

Kwa-Zulu Natal

14.35

18.23

19.90

Mpumalanga

12.16

16.18

15.77

Northern Province

3.04

4.89

7.96

Gauteng

6.44

12.03

15.49

North West

6.71

8.30

25.13

Age Group

     

<20

6.47

9.50

12.90

20-24

8.94

13.12

17.74

25-29

8.63

11.03

15.33

30-34

6.37

8.05

12.20

35-39

3.72

7.37

9.71

40-44

5.28

4.36

10.16

45-49

0.41

7.45

5.83

The HIV pandemic is spreading rapidly through South Africa and is affecting the lives of an ever-increasing number of people. In 1991 it was estimated that more than 315 000 people in South Africa would be HIV-positive by the end of that year (Levy, 1991). In June 1992 information on AIDS in South Africa was released by the Department of National Health and Population, and read as follows:

Annual number of cases reported in South Africa

Year of diagnosis

Total Cases

Deaths

Case fatality rate (%)

1982

2

2

100

1983

4

3

75

1984

8

8

100

1985

8

8

100

1986

24

23

96

1987

40

33

83

1988

91

56

62

1989

175

97

55

1990

318

88

28

1991

436

102

23

1992

210

26

12

Total

1316

446

34

Age and sex distribution of AIDS cases in South Africa

Age Group

Sex

Total

 

Male

Female

Unknown

 

0-9

102

82

4

188

10-19

10

26

0

36

20-29

183

150

2

335

30-39

280

92

1

373

40-49

120

22

0

142

50-59

37

11

0

48

60-69

12

3

0

15

70+

3

0

0

3

Unknown

118

53

5

176

Total

865

439

12

1316

In November 1997 16% of all women surveyed in South Africa tested positive, more than double that of 1994. Estimates indicate that 18-20% of all South Africans aged 20-40 was infected by 1998 (The Star, 1998). By 1998, 3.2 million South Africans were infected with HIV, with 1 500 new infections and 390 deaths per day, and 550 000 new infections and 130 000 deaths in the year. It is estimated that population growth could be negative after 2008, with an average life expectancy falling form 60 to 40 years. Infant deaths were expected to rise by 20% because of mother-to-child transmission, while deaths among children aged between 1 and 4, could rise by 150% from 1995 to 2005. In 1998 there was already 100 000 AIDS orphans in South Africa, which will rise to 1,6 million in 2008.

In 1998, 15-20% of Gauteng teenagers and young adults, and 7% of the Gauteng population were infected with the virus. Projections indicate that we can expect 65 000 deaths from AIDS alone in Gauteng in the year 2005, possibly climbing to over 100 000 in the year 2013 (Gauteng Provincial Government, 1998).

In the early 90’s HIV predictions in the black population was monitored at clinics and revealed statistics in percentages for South Africa (SA) and Greater Johannesburg (GJ):

Year end

Miners

STD clinics men (GJ)

Antenatal clinics (GJ)

Female blood donors (SA)

Male blood donors (SA)

Family planning clinics (GJ)

1989

2.3

2.9

0.71

0.6

0.41

1.9

1990

5.9

7.3

1.9

1.6

1.1

5.0

1991

14.0

17.0

4.8

4.2

2.8

12

By end 1992, 302 cases of AIDS were reported in Johannesburg, with 145 deaths (Department of National Health and Population, 1992). By the end of 1989, 5 701 of the total black population of Greater Johannesburg, aged 15-49, were infected (Padayachee & Schall, 1990). HIV estimates showed an infection level of 15.23% of the Johannesburg/Randburg area in 1996.

Projections for HIV/AIDS in Gauteng indicate that:

  • Approximately 17% of the total population is expected to be infected by 2013, with much higher prevalence among economically active adults;
  • The AIDS epidemic lags behind the HIV epidemic, but between 65 000 – 81 000 people are expected to die of AIDS in 2005 and between 119 000 – 126 000 people in 2013;
  • The major impact of the epidemic will be on people aged 25-49;
  • Certain regions will be affected more than others;
  • The total population will continue to grow despite the AIDS deaths;
  • By 2013, the proportion of adults in the population will have decreased noticeably compared to a no-AIDS situation, and the dependency ratio will increase due to infections (Steinberg et.al., 1999).

TEENAGERS, YOUNG ADULTS AND STREET CHILDREN

The term street children and youth embraces a diverse group of people, dislocated from family, school and community who tend to congregate in inner-city areas. Their reasons for being on the street vary, but all live without conventional support from adults. In South Africa the mean age of the street group is 13 years and consists mostly of black and coloured males (Richter & Swart-Kruger, 1995).

REFERENCES

Department of National Health and Population 1992: AIDS in South Africa.

Gauteng Provincial Government 1998: AIDS Strategy. AIDS Unit: Marshalltown.

Levy, T. 1991: 315 000 will be HIV-positive by end of year. Business Day, 22 January.

Padayachee, G.N. & R. Schall 1990: Short-term predictions of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection among the black population in South Africa. South African Medical Journal, 77: 4, 329-33.

Richter, L.M. & J. Swart-Kruger 1995: AIDS-risk among street children and youth: implications for intervention. South African Journal of Psychology, 25:1, 31-5.

Steinberg, M.; A. Kinghorn; J. Stein & L. Thomas 1999: The Impact of HIV/AIDS in Gauteng. University of the Witwatersrand (Centre for Health Policy ) & Gauteng Government (Health Section).

The Star 1/12/1998: World AIDS.

 

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